Mon, Dec 14, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 014 | 210 | 434 |
| PIT | 115 | 016 | 014 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:04WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Jason Chimera, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P1 13:59PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 8:50WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 19:11WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Snap, 0.22 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:04WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P1 18:56PITBrian Dumoulin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:53PITIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 17:25WSHTaylor Chorney: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:25PITNick Bonino: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:28WSHBrooks Laich: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:50PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:19
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Laich – Galiev – Burakovsky5:38
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson12:34
xG 0.63–0.96 (40%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:01
xG 0.34–0.99 (26%)attempts 12–19goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Schmidt16:29
xG 0.60–0.92 (39%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
- Chorney – Orlov9:41
xG 0.19–0.73 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner19:27
xG 0.59–1.31 (31%)attempts 13–27goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Sprong – Plotnikov2:42
xG 0.51–0.01 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Fehr – Hornqvist – Bonino3:43
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron12:40
xG 1.01–0.63 (61%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist8:20
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Clendening8:48
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin15:07
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Cole – Dumoulin5:22
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).