Mon, Dec 14, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Los Angeles Kings 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 112 | 114 | 336 |
| OTT | 06 | 48 | 17 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:21LAKJamie McBainAssists: Jeff Carter, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 2:29OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 3:58OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 6:03OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 14:34OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Curtis Lazar · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 17:47LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Jonathan Quick · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 10:00LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Milan Lucic, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 12:11OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:10LAKMichael Mersch: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:41LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:07OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:20OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28LAKMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:40OTTCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:05LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lucic – Toffoli10:39
xG 0.82–0.06 (94%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli2:50
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Brown – Mersch – Shore3:24
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Pearson9:56
xG 0.24–0.50 (33%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez9:21
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Doughty2:32
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort2:32
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad7:56
xG 0.64–0.07 (90%)attempts 7–5goals 3–0
- Turris – Smith – Stone11:13
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Chiasson – Dziurzynski – Pageau14:06
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cowen – Wideman9:17
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Methot – Karlsson12:52
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 2–1
- Wiercioch – Ceci11:31
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).