Tue, Dec 15, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Florida Panthers 5, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 02 | 310 | 25 | 517 |
| NYI | 019 | 19 | 06 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:51FLAReilly SmithAssists: Dylan Olsen, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:25FLAAleksander BarkovGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 12:37NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Mikhail Grabovski · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 12:57FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Brandon Pirri, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 1:23FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P3 16:17FLAJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:56NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:16NYIKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:51FLAQuinton Howden: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:43FLAJussi Jokinen: Embellishment2 min
- P1 17:43NYIKyle Okposo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:03FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:05FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P3 11:28NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:04FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck9:35
xG 0.75–0.43 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Pirri – Huberdeau – Barkov12:04
xG 0.72–0.65 (53%)attempts 6–17goals 2–0
- Thornton – Knight – Brickley6:32
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Howden – Shaw – Grimaldi10:09
xG 0.17–0.70 (20%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson12:41
xG 0.83–0.50 (63%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad13:11
xG 0.69–0.47 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
- Mitchell – Campbell12:31
xG 0.42–0.75 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Nelson8:20
xG 0.83–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Nelson3:55
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee4:57
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares4:44
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey9:33
xG 0.56–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Boychuk – de Haan8:51
xG 0.76–0.46 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy4:10
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).