Tue, Dec 15, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 113 | 19 | 01 | 332 |
| PHI | 06 | 313 | 010 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 0:23PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Radko Gudas, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 3:37CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–1
- P2 4:35PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Michael Raffl, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:29PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Matt Read · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 9:07CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:42PHIShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:14PHIScott Laughton: Holding2 min
- P2 2:13PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:40CARElias Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 10:04PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:13CARBrad Malone: Kneeing2 min
- P2 13:13CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:13PHIWayne Simmonds: Instigator2 min
- P2 13:13PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:13PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:40CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:53PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nestrasil won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom8:50
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Staal – Versteeg – Lindholm10:56
xG 0.25–0.12 (66%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- McClement – Terry – Malone3:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe9:42
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Hanifin11:58
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Faulk18:42
xG 0.41–0.39 (52%)attempts 18–18goals 1–2
- Faulk – Pesce2:12
xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Schenn – Raffl11:14
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Couturier8:20
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton5:01
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare10:30
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Medvedev12:52
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas16:10
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:50
xG 0.11–0.49 (18%)attempts 8–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).