Tue, Dec 15, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
San Jose Sharks 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 13 | 213 | 02 | 318 |
| MTL | 010 | 18 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:34SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joel Ward, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 0:36SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Justin Braun · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 9:19SJSDainius ZubrusAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 17:24MTLDale WeiseAssists: P.K. Subban, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:09SJSBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:44MTLTorrey Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:44SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:37SJSChris Tierney: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Karlsson12:36
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
- Zubrus – Thornton – Pavelski12:46
xG 0.44–0.19 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Wingels – Donskoi – Tierney9:50
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Nieto – Goodrow4:22
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun18:45
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Martin – Burns18:01
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo11:07
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Flynn – Carr2:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – Andrighetto4:45
xG 0.12–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Carr7:41
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto4:49
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Beaulieu10:46
xG 0.36–0.22 (63%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu7:19
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry17:18
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).