Tue, Dec 15, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 2, Nashville Predators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 16 | 08 | 12 | 221 |
| NSH | 112 | 04 | 05 | 01 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:09NSHCody HodgsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 12:28CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Sam Bennett, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 1:23CGYKris RussellGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:09CGYTJ Brodie: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 18:44NSHViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min
- P2 2:08NSHMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:08NSHJames Neal: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 8:37CGYTJ Brodie: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:16CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:40NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stajan – Colborne – Ferland8:05
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – Granlund – Bennett5:25
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Raymond – Frolik – Backlund5:36
xG 0.01–0.37 (2%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan8:04
xG 0.01–0.50 (3%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Hamilton13:58
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie2:34
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:47
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Nystrom – Salomaki10:12
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Forsberg10:14
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Watson – Sissons7:45
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Arvidsson13:23
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm15:30
xG 0.85–0.03 (97%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Jones13:30
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi15:16
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).