Tue, Dec 15, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 2, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 19 | 110 | 231 |
| MIN | 217 | 419 | 05 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17MINThomas VanekPPAssists: Zach Parise, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:47MINJason ZuckerAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 5:25MINZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 6:45VANJannik HansenAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 8:12MINMikko KoivuAssists: Thomas Vanek, Nate Prosser · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 12:36MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P2 16:03MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Mathew Dumba, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 6:16VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Snap, 0.12 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:50VANBen Hutton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:12VANYannick Weber: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:59VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:59MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:04VANJared McCann: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 18:27VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:27VANDerek Dorsett: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:27MINNate Prosser: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen7:48
xG 0.32–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Higgins – Hansen – McCann4:38
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat7:15
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat4:43
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev13:51
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Weber – Hutton18:40
xG 0.16–0.62 (21%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski15:19
xG 0.39–0.96 (29%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Vanek – Zucker12:54
xG 0.69–0.08 (90%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine12:01
xG 0.61–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund13:33
xG 0.81–0.54 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Porter – Carter – Haula11:47
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:23
xG 1.62–0.36 (82%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Scandella – Dumba12:13
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba2:33
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).