Tue, Dec 15, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 212 | 24 | 426 |
| WPG | 110 | 213 | 013 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Tyler Myers, Mathieu Perreault · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 0:16STLTroy BrouwerAssists: David Backes, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 5:54WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 8:30WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 18:25STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 0:51STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 16:22STLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:45STLJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:38WPGBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:03WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:20WPGMark Scheifele: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:20WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:20STLColton Parayko: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:04STLMagnus Paajarvi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko8:22
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Brouwer4:41
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri10:44
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Stastny – Paajarvi – Tarasenko4:12
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lindbohm10:00
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson4:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:07
xG 0.73–1.00 (42%)attempts 17–23goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Perreault – Scheifele10:45
xG 0.99–0.51 (66%)attempts 20–9goals 2–2
- Peluso – Lowry – Copp7:35
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers7:45
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:26
xG 0.67–0.79 (46%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers18:03
xG 0.89–0.51 (63%)attempts 25–12goals 1–1
- Byfuglien – Trouba14:11
xG 0.98–0.77 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Stuart – Chiarot14:06
xG 0.27–0.54 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).