Tue, Dec 15, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 016 | 112 | 07 | 135 |
| DAL | 18 | 319 | 17 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:53DALJohnny OduyaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 4:32CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Nick Foligno · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 13:02DALAlex GoligoskiGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 16:26DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 16:56DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 1:47DALMattias JanmarkUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P2 4:06DALPatrik Nemeth: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:02CBJScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:43CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:19DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:19CBJBoone Jenner: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:19DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44CBJDalton Prout: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:44CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44DALTravis Moen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCampbell – Clarkson – Karlsson7:15
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Wennberg8:39
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jenner – Saad8:59
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Calvert10:07
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout10:55
xG 0.61–0.22 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray17:37
xG 1.01–0.99 (50%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
- Bodnarchuk – Prout3:07
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Sharp – Nichushkin8:19
xG 0.95–0.31 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Janmark5:46
xG 0.58–0.31 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin8:07
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Eaves5:17
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg16:51
xG 1.34–0.95 (59%)attempts 21–20goals 2–0
- Benn – Nemeth16:57
xG 0.77–0.83 (48%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers15:30
xG 0.46–0.75 (38%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).