Thu, Dec 17, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 26 | 114 | 26 | 526 |
| NJD | 06 | 07 | 13 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Brandon Pirri, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 12:00FLADmitry KulikovGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 2:42FLABrandon PirriAssists: Corban Knight, Logan Shaw · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 7:28FLAReilly SmithAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.26 xG4–0
- P3 13:38NJDSergey KalininPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, David Schlemko · Tip-in, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 15:16FLALogan ShawENAssists: Brandon Pirri, Corban Knight · Slap, 0.63 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:59FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:36NJDTyler Kennedy: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:41NJDLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:28FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 0:25NJDAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:11FLADylan Olsen: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Howden – Grimaldi10:27
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:42
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Pirri – Knight – Shaw10:54
xG 0.20–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:03
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Campbell13:59
xG 0.85–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson12:13
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad15:32
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTlusty – Palmieri – Josefson4:09
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Palmieri – Kalinin2:53
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Tlusty – Josefson2:35
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta7:26
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Severson3:37
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson15:52
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Merrill11:31
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).