Thu, Dec 17, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 0, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 016 | 08 | 036 |
| PHI | 112 | 012 | 17 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:45PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Evgeny Medvedev, Matt Read · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 17:10PHISean CouturierAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.35 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:45VANJannik Hansen: Holding2 min
- P1 17:09VANYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 17:46VANAlex Biega: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:35PHIBrandon Manning: Embellishment2 min
- P2 0:35VANDerek Dorsett: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:17PHIRyan White: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:05VANMatt Bartkowski: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:14PHIRyan White: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:16PHIClaude Giroux: Interference2 min
- P3 13:19VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:19PHIMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Cracknell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Baertschi – Horvat4:42
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett6:57
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – McCann5:19
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows3:41
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev15:19
xG 0.70–0.31 (70%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Hutton11:46
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski11:52
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Couturier9:56
xG 0.85–0.19 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare10:37
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton7:16
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl8:12
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Medvedev11:41
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere10:52
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas13:46
xG 0.25–0.83 (23%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).