Thu, Dec 17, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 06 | 011 | 128 |
| STL | 011 | 012 | 210 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 2:38STLDavid BackesAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 14:40STLVladimir TarasenkoPPGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:01STLTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:17NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:13STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:31NSHJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:31STLPaul Stastny: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 10:40STLCarl Gunnarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:14NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg11:09
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok3:22
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Hodgson – Sissons5:32
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Salomaki8:00
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:25
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm14:53
xG 0.13–0.60 (18%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Jackman – Jones12:27
xG 0.43–0.92 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri10:23
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:00
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko11:34
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Backes – Brouwer – Paajarvi10:03
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko12:36
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindbohm14:24
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:23
xG 0.55–0.64 (46%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).