Thu, Dec 17, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 28 | 113 | 06 | 327 |
| DAL | 111 | 08 | 017 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:44DALJohnny OduyaSHAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 15:29CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:32CGYDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Joe Colborne, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:30CGYMason RaymondAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:25DALValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:48CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P1 12:35DALCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:38CGYDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:30DALMattias Janmark: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:46DALPatrick Sharp: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:46CGYDennis Wideman: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:45CGYDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Colborne – Ferland9:16
xG 0.86–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan3:00
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Raymond – Backlund – Jooris2:34
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Raymond – Backlund3:33
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:49
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie2:36
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton13:50
xG 0.70–0.80 (47%)attempts 11–27goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Janmark4:14
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Janmark2:31
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Eaves – Janmark3:05
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Nichushkin5:11
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Nemeth9:55
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Klingberg2:21
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 9–2goals 0–2
- Oduya – Demers12:30
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).