Thu, Dec 17, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Islanders 1, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 014 | 111 | 09 | 134 |
| COL | 17 | 011 | 112 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48COLFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Andreas Martinsen · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:55NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 16:12COLFrancois BeaucheminGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:36NYINick Leddy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:10COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:07COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:10COLMikhail Grigorenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:28COLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:20NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:09COLAndreas Martinsen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:03
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Lee9:56
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Nelson – Strome10:41
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares12:43
xG 0.38–0.69 (36%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy16:02
xG 1.01–0.63 (62%)attempts 25–17goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan14:42
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey8:27
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Martinsen11:42
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- McLeod – Skille – Grigorenko4:49
xG 0.14–0.08 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Mitchell10:24
xG 0.38–0.69 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Duchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon16:29
xG 0.62–0.99 (39%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson18:15
xG 1.01–0.60 (63%)attempts 24–18goals 2–0
- Guenin – Redmond6:12
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie18:05
xG 0.43–1.14 (27%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).