Fri, Dec 18, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 013 | 18 | 112 | 233 |
| OTT | 012 | 113 | 310 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:29SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:46OTTBobby RyanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 8:22OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Dave Dziurzynski, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 13:06OTTChris WidemanGWGAssists: Curtis Lazar, Shane Prince · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 15:51OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 17:36SJSBrent BurnsUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:24OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:18OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:33SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:15SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Interference2 min
- P2 6:38SJSDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:16OTTMika Zibanejad: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:39OTTMark Borowiecki: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Goodrow – Hertl7:46
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Thornton – Pavelski11:31
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Donskoi – Tierney – Karlsson8:40
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto11:26
xG 0.46–1.08 (30%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns14:41
xG 1.22–0.46 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Burns – Dillon2:53
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Dillon – DeMelo11:13
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Dziurzynski – Pageau7:21
xG 0.58–0.18 (77%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Neil – Prince – Lazar7:13
xG 0.01–0.09 (12%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad11:50
xG 0.60–0.70 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Turris – Smith – Stone13:27
xG 0.50–0.95 (34%)attempts 16–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Borowiecki2:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson17:07
xG 0.82–0.71 (54%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci13:58
xG 0.57–0.71 (44%)attempts 18–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).