Fri, Dec 18, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 117 | 110 | 112 | 01 | 2 | 440 |
| DET | 05 | 15 | 214 | 04 | 1 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:57VANJared McCannAssists: Jannik Hansen · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 17:08VANSven BaertschiAssists: Bo Horvat, Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 18:53DETJoakim AnderssonAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Luke Glendening · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 3:29DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Brendan Smith, Alexey Marchenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 5:33VANRadim VrbataAssists: Chris Tanev, Sven Baertschi · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 18:53DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. VAN Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 4. VAN Radim Vrbata scored
- 5. DET Brad Richards scored
- 6. VAN Sven Baertschi stopped
- 7. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 8. VAN Chris Higgins stopped
- 9. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 10. VAN Jannik Hansen stopped
- 11. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 12. VAN Daniel Sedin stopped
- 13. DET Darren Helm stopped
- 14. VAN Linden Vey scored
Penalties (7)
- P2 13:42VANAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00VANBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:22VANJared McCann: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:43VANAlex Biega: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:43DETLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:06DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 14:34DETBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Baertschi – Horvat9:31
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Sedin – Hansen – McCann8:47
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Vey9:42
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett10:33
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Bartkowski15:12
xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Weber – Hutton13:02
xG 0.84–0.50 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev16:30
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Jurco – Glendening8:21
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan10:05
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm9:18
xG 0.20–0.78 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin11:04
xG 0.15–0.90 (14%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser3:40
xG 0.15–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser14:43
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Smith – Marchenko12:05
xG 0.30–0.41 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).