Fri, Dec 18, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 110 | 09 | 228 |
| WPG | 313 | 117 | 16 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:34WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 14:01NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Kevin Hayes, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–2
- P1 17:31WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 14:12NYRDan BoylePPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 16:14WPGTyler MyersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:59WPGAndrew LaddENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.59 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:49NYRKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:30WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:25NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:15NYRRick Nash: Interference2 min
- P2 12:46WPGAndrew Ladd: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 14:12NYRDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:12WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Etem – Miller3:31
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hayes – Miller2:55
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Etem2:46
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Fast3:19
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – McIlrath11:27
xG 0.81–0.39 (67%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Boyle – Summers8:37
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Yandle – McDonagh4:05
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Perreault – Scheifele12:34
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Halischuk – Armia – Copp7:50
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Wheeler – Little3:05
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little7:02
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers14:20
xG 0.97–0.40 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 3–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba18:18
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Stuart – Chiarot9:39
xG 0.49–0.61 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).