Sat, Dec 19, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 015 | 215 | 238 |
| STL | 27 | 16 | 09 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:47STLColton ParaykoAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 14:53STLJori LehteraGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 4:00CGYSean MonahanAssists: Mark Giordano, Josh Jooris · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 16:07CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Mikael Backlund, David Jones · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:50STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:50CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:37STLJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- P2 12:03STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:14STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:59STLRobby Fabbri: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Jooris7:52
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Jones – Raymond – Backlund6:13
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Raymond – Backlund – Jooris3:38
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan3:49
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Wideman8:47
xG 0.24–0.11 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie3:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:45
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 17–16goals 1–3
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko11:52
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 2–2
- Backes – Brouwer – Paajarvi13:25
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Gomez – Upshall – Reaves4:59
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri9:31
xG 0.19–0.25 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko11:25
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo2:15
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindbohm11:04
xG 0.14–0.25 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).