Sat, Dec 19, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 2, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 16 | 16 | 223 |
| DAL | 18 | 313 | 26 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34DALJason SpezzaAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:24DALJamie BennUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 3:06DALPatrick SharpPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 11:35MTLDaniel CarrPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–3
- P2 13:51DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 0:31DALJamie BennPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–5
- P3 4:12MTLPaul ByronSHAssists: Brian Flynn · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–5
- P3 4:27DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 14:28DALPatrick Eaves: Interference2 min
- P1 15:48MTLAndrei Markov: Interference2 min
- P1 17:47DALCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:15MTLMichael McCarron: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 7:01MTLAndrei Markov: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:12DALJason Demers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:05MTLNathan Beaulieu: Holding2 min
- P2 13:21DALJason Demers: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:07DALAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P2 16:29MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:30MTLP.K. Subban: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 0:21MTLTom Gilbert: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:32MTLP.K. Subban: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 15:18DALMattias Janmark: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Desharnais – Weise8:36
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk9:10
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Flynn – Carr7:38
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Eller – McCarron8:15
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Beaulieu10:28
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry6:46
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Emelin3:08
xG 0.03–0.01 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Eaves – Nichushkin5:17
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin7:33
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Janmark7:54
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Roussel – Eakin5:40
xG 0.00–0.21 (1%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg11:59
xG 0.62–0.13 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Oduya – Demers10:41
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Benn – Jokipakka12:48
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).