Sat, Dec 19, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 013 | 014 | 113 | 140 |
| COL | 29 | 112 | 28 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12COLBlake ComeauSHAssists: Carl Soderberg, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:49COLTyson BarriePPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 14:26COLNick HoldenAssists: John Mitchell · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 2:58EDMAndrej SekeraAssists: Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 7:05COLJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 16:31COLJack SkilleAssists: Cody McLeod, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:54COLMatt Duchene: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:41EDMBenoit Pouliot: Concealing puck2 min · PPG
- P1 17:08COLJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl15:50
xG 1.35–0.36 (79%)attempts 27–9goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:09
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen6:30
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu8:41
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Davidson11:21
xG 0.72–0.04 (95%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Gryba11:15
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Sekera – Nurse15:31
xG 0.84–0.56 (60%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Mitchell12:42
xG 1.60–0.30 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- McLeod – Skille – Grigorenko7:08
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Martinsen14:39
xG 0.28–0.72 (28%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
- Duchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:58
xG 0.52–1.32 (28%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Redmond11:23
xG 1.76–0.63 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie19:33
xG 0.50–0.86 (37%)attempts 12–21goals 3–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson19:39
xG 0.64–1.26 (34%)attempts 13–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).