Sun, Dec 20, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 7, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 417 | 26 | 730 |
| NYR | 315 | 09 | 012 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Taylor Chorney, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 13:42NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Rick Nash, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:44NYRChris KreiderAssists: Marc Staal, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 18:03NYRDan BoylePPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 5:25WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Justin Williams · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 7:01WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 11:03WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P2 19:00WSHJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 2:26WSHJason ChimeraSHAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–3
- P3 4:36WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.16 xG7–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:21WSHJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:05WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:53NYROscar Lindberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:09WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:33WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:33NYRTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:33WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:33NYRTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:33NYRChris Summers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:34WSHMichael Latta: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:50NYROscar Lindberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Wilson7:35
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Burakovsky7:07
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov12:26
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:07
xG 0.37–0.84 (31%)attempts 7–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner13:54
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Carlson – Schmidt11:58
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Chorney – Orlov17:33
xG 0.47–1.01 (32%)attempts 9–20goals 2–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Fast10:42
xG 0.80–0.18 (82%)attempts 21–6goals 1–1
- Moore – Lindberg – Etem8:39
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Glass – Zuccarello – Hayes7:30
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Miller9:25
xG 0.09–0.28 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – McDonagh10:33
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Summers – McIlrath3:30
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Summers9:05
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).