Mon, Dec 21, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
St. Louis Blues 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 215 | 19 | 05 | 329 |
| PHI | 08 | 214 | 29 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:16STLRobby FabbriAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin · Snap, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 14:51STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 9:11STLMagnus PaajarviAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 10:03PHIChris VandeVeldeSHAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
- P2 12:13PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 0:51PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 16:47PHIEvgeny MedvedevGWGAssists: Ryan White, Chris VandeVelde · Slap, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:11STLMagnus Paajarvi: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:03PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:07STLJoel Edmundson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:07PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:16PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:30STLJori Lehtera: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34STLScott Gomez: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri9:47
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Stastny – Paajarvi – Tarasenko3:04
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Brouwer3:01
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Backes – Brouwer – Paajarvi7:46
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:14
xG 0.67–0.57 (54%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson10:04
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Parayko8:35
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Read – Laughton8:01
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Couturier11:25
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare11:39
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl9:31
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gostisbehere11:59
xG 0.89–0.32 (74%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Schenn – Medvedev2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Medvedev3:13
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).