Mon, Dec 21, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 07 | 18 | 224 |
| PIT | 012 | 410 | 113 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 3:06PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: David Perron, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:24PITPhil KesselAssists: Scott Wilson, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 16:00PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Nick Bonino, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 19:15PITDavid WarsofskyPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, David Perron · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 5:23CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ryan Johansen, Andrew Bodnarchuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 18:31PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:30PITEvgeni Malkin: Elbowing2 min
- P1 12:06PITMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:30CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 0:30PITEric Fehr: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:43CBJJoonas Korpisalo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:03CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:03PITScott Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:03CBJBoone Jenner: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:00CBJRene Bourque: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:29PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:02CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fehr won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg9:48
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:26
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Campbell – Clarkson – Karlsson5:57
xG 0.01–0.36 (3%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Bourque – Johansen – Jenner5:14
xG 0.12–0.87 (12%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Bodnarchuk – Falk10:42
xG 0.33–0.51 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Prout16:27
xG 0.39–0.65 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Johnson – Murray18:30
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Perron – Wilson5:47
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kessel – Bonino10:05
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Fehr – Porter – Plotnikov10:01
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Sheary10:28
xG 0.45–0.39 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin18:57
xG 0.75–0.15 (84%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Maatta14:35
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Cole – Warsofsky12:31
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).