Mon, Dec 21, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 014 | 09 | 113 | 136 |
| NSH | 18 | 14 | 37 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40NSHShea WeberAssists: Roman Josi, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 8:22NSHRoman JosiPPGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 3:08NSHRyan EllisAssists: Colin Wilson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 8:58NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Colin Wilson, James Neal · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 12:08MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban · Slap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 17:55NSHColin WilsonENAssists: Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 0:29NSHMiikka Salomaki: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:23MTLDale Weise: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:52MTLBrian Flynn: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:05MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P3 5:33NSHColin Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:25NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:25MTLPaul Byron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:51NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00NSHMiikka Salomaki: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Weise12:12
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Fleischmann – Byron13:05
xG 0.62–0.12 (83%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Eller – Galchenyuk – Carr10:53
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – McCarron5:41
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Beaulieu16:38
xG 1.32–0.26 (84%)attempts 26–5goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin14:10
xG 0.49–0.10 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Tinordi12:12
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Hodgson – Sissons – Arvidsson8:50
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Salomaki11:32
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok10:26
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:16
xG 0.13–0.68 (16%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ellis – Ekholm15:50
xG 0.21–0.58 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi15:52
xG 0.27–0.74 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Jackman – Jones13:30
xG 0.19–0.94 (17%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).