Mon, Dec 21, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 6, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 011 | 315 | 38 | 634 |
| MIN | 211 | 010 | 114 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57MINJared SpurgeonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:16MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Justin Fontaine, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 14:59DALJordie BennAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 18:30DALVernon FiddlerPPAssists: Patrick Eaves, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 19:29DALTyler SeguinAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 3:41DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Johnny Oduya · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 10:26MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–3
- P3 18:07DALCody EakinENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.43 xG5–3
- P3 19:46DALVernon FiddlerENAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.64 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 11:52DALPatrick Sharp: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:52MINMikael Granlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:24MINMikko Koivu: Interference2 min
- P2 16:32MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Benn – Seguin7:23
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Fiddler – Eaves – Nichushkin6:44
xG 0.09–0.05 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Benn2:42
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Janmark4:54
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg11:22
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Benn – Jokipakka7:56
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Oduya – Demers12:29
xG 0.21–0.72 (22%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine7:13
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Zucker9:04
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Stoll – Porter – Carter5:52
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund10:06
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser4:48
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba3:40
xG 0.02–0.03 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:35
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).