Mon, Dec 21, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 117 | 016 | 145 |
| EDM | 211 | 17 | 03 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:59EDMTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 7:44EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Teddy Purcell, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 12:27WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:51WPGChris Thorburn: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:24EDMNikita Nikitin: Interference2 min
- P2 10:26EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:01EDMNikita Nikitin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:01WPGMark Scheifele: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:39EDMLeon Draisaitl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:05WPGAndrew Ladd: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:58EDMAnton Lander: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:54EDMTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGMark Scheifele: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Perreault – Scheifele10:29
xG 0.74–0.05 (93%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:42
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 22–7goals 1–2
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers9:40
xG 0.55–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Armia – Copp4:23
xG 0.06–0.04 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Trouba14:02
xG 0.93–0.43 (69%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- Stuart – Chiarot8:11
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers14:35
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl12:10
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 10–19goals 3–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen3:52
xG 0.02–0.24 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:12
xG 0.20–0.46 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu8:53
xG 0.07–0.53 (12%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Fayne3:02
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Nurse3:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Gryba – Schultz2:03
xG 0.02–0.05 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).