Tue, Dec 22, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 37 | 06 | 14 | 417 |
| DET | 113 | 15 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Jon Merrill · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 12:47NJDJordin TootooAssists: Andy Greene · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 14:17NJDDavid SchlemkoAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P1 18:32DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 12:31DETMike GreenPPAssists: Brad Richards, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 2:24NJDSergey KalininGWGAssists: Jacob Josefson · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 14:23DETRiley SheahanAssists: Tomas Jurco · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 10:00NJDAndy Greene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:37DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:02NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:49NJDAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:49DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:12DETGustav Nyquist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:03NJDAndy Greene: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:35NJDMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:35DETDanny DeKeyser: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:02NJDStephen Gionta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:14NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:46NJDJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:23DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:02DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Josefson – Kalinin7:23
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique10:56
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta8:27
xG 0.60–0.65 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Zajac – Tlusty – Palmieri9:09
xG 0.13–0.52 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Merrill9:35
xG 0.96–0.14 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Moore – Severson10:56
xG 0.05–0.52 (9%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson15:21
xG 0.22–0.76 (23%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Datsyuk – Helm9:08
xG 0.61–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Andersson – Jurco – Glendening4:51
xG 0.55–0.28 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist2:14
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin7:31
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith6:41
xG 0.68–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchenko6:05
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Kindl – Marchenko2:33
xG 0.02–0.01 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).