Tue, Dec 22, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 09 | 13 | 219 |
| TBL | 04 | 113 | 010 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:57VANSven BaertschiAssists: Radim Vrbata, Alex Biega · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 19:38TBLJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 11:09VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:28TBLMike Angelidis: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28VANBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:49VANYannick Weber: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 7:50TBLRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:18VANBen Hutton: Holding2 min
- P1 18:31VANMatt Bartkowski: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:59VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:26VANAdam Cracknell: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:10VANRonalds Kenins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:11VANYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:08VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:48VANDerek Dorsett: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:48TBLNikita Kucherov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:49VANRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:15TBLNikita Nesterov: Interference2 min
- P3 10:15VANJannik Hansen: Embellishment2 min
- P3 18:18VANJared McCann: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata4:12
xG 0.03–0.01 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat5:51
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Kenins6:17
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen5:49
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Hutton2:22
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Weber – Hutton10:59
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev12:09
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov10:21
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn8:29
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Blunden – Angelidis – Killorn2:18
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Blunden – Condra – Paquette2:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Nesterov3:24
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman7:57
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Hedman2:13
xG 0.06–0.02 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).