Tue, Dec 22, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 1, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 04 | 12 | 02 | 0 | 116 |
| FLA | 013 | 119 | 06 | 02 | 2 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:14FLACorban KnightAssists: Quinton Howden, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 1:31OTTMark StonePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. FLA Brandon Pirri scored
- 2. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 3. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 4. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 5. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:59OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P1 14:29OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P2 13:06FLAWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:51OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:55OTTJared Cowen: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:43FLABrandon Pirri: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:57OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Stone6:54
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad5:55
xG 0.02–0.01 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone3:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Dziurzynski – Pageau2:42
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cowen – Wideman10:17
xG 0.04–0.18 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Wideman2:34
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:58
xG 0.40–0.64 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:48
xG 0.73–0.13 (85%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov14:16
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Knight – Howden5:28
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Pirri – Shaw9:11
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson11:38
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad17:00
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Petrovic13:34
xG 0.34–0.16 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).