Tue, Dec 22, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 03 | 014 | 03 | 020 |
| DAL | 07 | 18 | 317 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:12DALJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 0:11DALPatrick SharpAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 2:57DALColton SceviourAssists: Jordie Benn, Antoine Roussel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 14:36DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Jason Demers, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:39DALVernon Fiddler: Delaying game2 min
- P1 13:13DALJason Demers: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:27CHIArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:54CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:36DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:36CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:28CHIMichal Rozsival: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:13CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Mashinter – Rasmussen5:13
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Shaw – Teravainen6:33
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin8:20
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Garbutt – Danault11:22
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson15:35
xG 0.48–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Scuderi9:21
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Keith – van Riemsdyk11:02
xG 0.56–0.76 (43%)attempts 17–14goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Benn – Seguin12:18
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Roussel – Eakin10:41
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Janmark6:26
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Nichushkin9:18
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers13:39
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg12:52
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Jokipakka11:02
xG 0.61–0.80 (43%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).