Sat, Dec 26, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 6, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 111 | 510 | 629 |
| BOS | 011 | 213 | 19 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:13BUFEvander KaneAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 5:49BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: Kevan Miller, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:05BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:59BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Loui Eriksson · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 10:21BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Mike Weber, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 11:00BUFJack EichelAssists: Jake McCabe · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 14:24BUFJamie McGinnGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zach Bogosian · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 18:42BUFJack EichelENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–3
- P3 19:10BUFRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Jack Eichel, Jamie McGinn · Snap, 0.76 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:11BUFJosh Gorges: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:41BOSKevan Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:02BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 17:14BOSLandon Ferraro: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:18BOSFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:19BUFDavid Legwand: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Moulson – Deslauriers5:17
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Reinhart11:09
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Gionta – Larsson – Girgensons8:22
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Larsson – Girgensons2:19
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Franson – Weber12:46
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen16:10
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe13:47
xG 0.68–1.26 (35%)attempts 8–17goals 3–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Beleskey11:44
xG 1.10–0.54 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 2–2
- Hayes – Spooner – Vatrano10:35
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Ferraro – Randell6:21
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly11:49
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller4:32
xG 0.60–0.04 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid7:39
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug3:48
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).