Sat, Dec 26, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 211 | 05 | 01 | 4 | 224 |
| STL | 06 | 118 | 111 | 02 | 5 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:18STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 8:15DALColton SceviourAssists: Cody Eakin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 19:23DALTyler SeguinAssists: Patrick Sharp, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 18:10STLRobby FabbriAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, David Backes · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 2. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 5. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 6. DAL Patrick Sharp scored
- 7. STL Robby Fabbri stopped
- 8. DAL Colton Sceviour stopped
- 9. STL Jori Lehtera scored
- 10. DAL Jason Spezza scored
- 11. STL Magnus Paajarvi stopped
- 12. DAL John Klingberg stopped
- 13. STL Dmitrij Jaskin scored
- 14. DAL Patrick Eaves scored
- 15. STL Troy Brouwer stopped
- 16. DAL Jordie Benn stopped
- 17. STL David Backes scored
- 18. DAL Vernon Fiddler stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:35STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:17DALAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P2 5:53DALMattias Janmark: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:35DALJason Demers: Interference2 min
- P3 14:09DALMattias Janmark: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Janmark3:48
xG 0.36–0.09 (81%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Janmark4:37
xG 0.09–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Nichushkin2:41
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Nichushkin8:30
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Jokipakka11:10
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:59
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Oduya – Demers18:06
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri3:17
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Paajarvi – Tarasenko13:02
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Reaves – Caron – Jaskin4:31
xG 0.09–0.15 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Upshall – Lehtera – Fabbri5:24
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Shattenkirk2:22
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:24
xG 0.27–0.25 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Parayko13:58
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).