Sat, Dec 26, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 316 | 05 | 332 |
| MIN | 04 | 18 | 014 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:23PITSidney CrosbyAssists: David Perron, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 18:10PITEric FehrGWGAssists: Kevin Porter, Matt Cullen · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 18:55MINJason ZuckerAssists: Thomas Vanek, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 19:26PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:06MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:03PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:34PITPatric Hornqvist: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:18PITScott Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:10MINJared Spurgeon: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:19MINJarret Stoll: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 13:43PITDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Sheary10:01
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Porter8:35
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Perron11:31
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Wilson7:37
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta15:11
xG 1.04–0.20 (84%)attempts 24–5goals 1–0
- Daley – Cole10:24
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin15:10
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund13:10
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Koivu – Vanek – Zucker10:26
xG 0.38–0.40 (48%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine5:23
xG 0.21–0.35 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Stoll – Porter – Haula6:31
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Dumba2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:02
xG 0.46–0.53 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Scandella – Dumba7:10
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).