Sun, Dec 27, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 016 | 115 | 08 | 139 |
| OTT | 110 | 17 | 15 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:41OTTMark StonePPAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:54BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Matt Beleskey, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 18:21OTTMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 19:06OTTMark StoneENAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.63 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:32BOSAdam McQuaid: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:37BOSJimmy Hayes: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 18:37OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:37BOSJimmy Hayes: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 18:37BOSJimmy Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:21OTTMax McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:23OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro3:54
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Beleskey8:59
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly12:27
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Hayes – Spooner – Vatrano4:21
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Morrow13:52
xG 0.58–0.04 (94%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Chara – Trotman16:30
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid13:44
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Neil – McCormick – Pageau3:38
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad11:58
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Dziurzynski – Pageau6:05
xG 0.01–0.13 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Stone13:14
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen4:17
xG 0.01–0.01 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Borowiecki14:55
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).