Sun, Dec 27, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 01 | 19 | 17 | 217 |
| FLA | 219 | 08 | 15 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:42FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 7:59CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Justin Falk, Kevin Connauton · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 7:23FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 11:26CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.44 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:29FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:29CBJGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:42FLAWillie Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:59CBJDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:21CBJCam Atkinson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:18CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 12:12FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:31CBJScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:18CBJBrandon Saad: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:31CBJRyan Murray: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:03FLABrandon Pirri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:14FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:04CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:04FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Saad – Wennberg8:58
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Campbell – Clarkson – Calvert2:38
xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Johansen5:33
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Jenner – Karlsson5:18
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Connauton6:24
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Prout12:29
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray15:19
xG 0.18–0.89 (17%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:29
xG 0.89–0.13 (87%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck8:42
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Pirri – Shaw8:25
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Knight – Brickley6:16
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad3:01
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad10:39
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Campbell – Gudbranson8:40
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).