Sun, Dec 27, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 07 | 010 | 022 |
| DAL | 116 | 013 | 29 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:03DALPatrick SharpPPGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 0:40DALJamie BennPPAssists: Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 18:28DALCody EakinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:55DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:55STLVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:41STLColton Parayko: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:09STLScottie Upshall: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:09STLRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:09DALTyler Seguin: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:03STLTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:03DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:07STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:07DALTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:28STLDmitrij Jaskin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:59DALJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:08DALTyler Seguin: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Upshall – Reaves5:59
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko2:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Paajarvi – Jaskin3:18
xG 0.01–0.05 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Brouwer7:17
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:09
xG 0.71–0.67 (51%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo2:25
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko16:11
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Benn – Seguin11:47
xG 1.31–0.36 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Janmark11:34
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Roussel – Eakin7:34
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Nichushkin5:55
xG 0.18–0.15 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg16:41
xG 1.91–0.65 (74%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers17:09
xG 0.86–0.43 (67%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Benn – Jokipakka10:46
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).