Sun, Dec 27, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 014 | 07 | 030 |
| WPG | 111 | 05 | 012 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:46WPGBryan LittleGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:52PITSergei Plotnikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:46PITBen Lovejoy: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:09WPGMatt Halischuk: Interference2 min
- P2 18:59WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:12PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Kessel8:00
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Porter7:39
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Perron10:13
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kessel – Bonino2:45
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin15:26
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Warsofsky13:08
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Daley – Maatta14:52
xG 0.21–0.73 (22%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Little11:24
xG 0.76–0.65 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Perreault – Ehlers10:38
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Armia – Copp5:35
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Burmistrov – Lowry12:42
xG 0.22–0.28 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Trouba15:04
xG 0.78–0.19 (80%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Stuart – Chiarot13:28
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers17:12
xG 0.34–0.89 (28%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).