Sun, Dec 27, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 110 | 05 | 226 |
| ANA | 115 | 114 | 28 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:12PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Nick Schultz, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:26PHIMichael RafflPPAssists: Matt Read, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 4:14ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Patrick Maroon · Slap, 0.48 xG2–2
- P3 0:58ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 7:54ANAShawn HorcoffSHAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:52PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 1:52ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:52ANAShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:29PHILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:29ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:29PHISteve Mason: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:29PHIRyan White: Misconduct10 min
- P1 4:29ANAKevin Bieksa: Misconduct10 min
- P1 5:01PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:31ANASami Vatanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:07PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:41ANACarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:16ANASami Vatanen: Holding2 min
- P3 10:19ANACorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Couturier11:32
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton6:56
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare7:06
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl12:55
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Gudas13:41
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Gudas – Medvedev2:10
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Medvedev14:30
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Santorelli – Sekac6:53
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg9:39
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Maroon6:56
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:58
xG 0.39–0.77 (34%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:46
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen5:46
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Manson2:39
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).