Sun, Dec 27, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 112 | 011 | 331 |
| CGY | 010 | 420 | 17 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:21EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 18:11EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 3:10CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: TJ Brodie, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 10:21EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 12:52CGYMatt StajanSHAssists: Markus Granlund, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 16:47CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 19:28CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 18:00CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.02 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:09EDMJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:02CGYJoe Colborne: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:48EDMMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:11EDMJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:10
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu10:11
xG 0.76–0.54 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen5:17
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl16:26
xG 0.68–0.67 (51%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Gryba13:19
xG 0.93–0.32 (74%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Sekera – Gryba2:01
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sekera – Fayne13:41
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Colborne – Ferland12:50
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan13:12
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma9:49
xG 0.24–0.28 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Raymond – Granlund – Bennett9:48
xG 0.70–0.75 (48%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Hamilton17:14
xG 1.06–0.80 (57%)attempts 24–18goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie18:39
xG 0.72–0.70 (51%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Engelland – Wideman9:53
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).