Mon, Dec 28, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 07 | 111 | 129 |
| MIN | 19 | 010 | 216 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 17:42MINMikko KoivuPPGWGAssists: Mathew Dumba, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P3 18:03DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Brendan Smith · Slap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 18:56MINMikko KoivuENAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:35DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:56MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min
- P2 19:44DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:44MINRyan Suter: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:42MINNino Niederreiter: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:46DETMike Green: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin10:08
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Andersson – Jurco – Nosek5:02
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan6:47
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm10:51
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Kindl7:16
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith3:34
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green5:49
xG 0.20–0.23 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Coyle – Niederreiter8:54
xG 1.13–0.06 (95%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Zucker11:22
xG 0.98–0.16 (86%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Stoll – Porter – Carter7:47
xG 0.04–0.04 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund11:15
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Brodin12:58
xG 1.12–0.23 (83%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:53
xG 1.08–0.66 (62%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Scandella – Dumba12:35
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).