Tue, Dec 29, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 113 | 113 | 332 |
| BOS | 213 | 115 | 49 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01BOSJimmy HayesAssists: Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:31OTTChris NeilAssists: Shane Prince, Max McCormick · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P1 16:25BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Torey Krug, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 1:21BOSMatt BeleskeyPPAssists: Brett Connolly, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 17:51OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Neil, Shane Prince · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 2:38BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Seth Griffith · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 4:22OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 15:49BOSJimmy HayesAssists: Max Talbot, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 16:40BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Spooner, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–6
- P3 19:59BOSJimmy HayesPPAssists: Max Talbot, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–7
Penalties (25)
- P1 10:04BOSRyan Spooner: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:02OTTMax McCormick: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:22OTTChris Wideman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:55OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:35BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:45OTTDave Dziurzynski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:14OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:14BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:02OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:02BOSBrett Connolly: Embellishment2 min
- P3 1:54OTTMark Stone: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 7:58BOSLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:55BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:26OTTChris Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:57OTTMax McCormick: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 18:57BOSLandon Ferraro: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:33OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:33OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33OTTMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33OTTDave Dziurzynski: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:33BOSAdam McQuaid: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33BOSZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:33BOSKevan Miller: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33BOSMatt Beleskey: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33OTTZack Smith: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – McCormick – Prince4:33
xG 0.72–0.07 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Neil – Prince – Zibanejad3:21
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Turris – Stone – McCormick3:22
xG 0.13–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Dziurzynski – Pageau2:14
xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Wideman3:06
xG 0.78–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Wiercioch – Borowiecki5:27
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch5:31
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Hayes – Rinaldo9:24
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Beleskey – Spooner7:27
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Griffith8:53
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Connolly – Vatrano7:41
xG 0.06–0.79 (7%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg12:26
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Krug10:03
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Miller – Morrow10:59
xG 0.23–0.94 (20%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).