Tue, Dec 29, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 1, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 08 | 010 | 130 |
| FLA | 113 | 19 | 18 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:39MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 16:28FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:16FLAJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 8:53FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:50MTLTomas Fleischmann: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:57MTLTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:57FLADerek MacKenzie: Embellishment2 min
- P1 11:24FLADmitry Kulikov: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P1 14:29MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:39FLADerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:39MTLP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:57MTLJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:18FLAReilly Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 7:43FLALogan Shaw: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:56MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:47MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Andrighetto4:24
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise2:24
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn6:34
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Fleischmann – Andrighetto7:29
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pateryn – Barberio9:46
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Beaulieu2:28
xG 0.01–0.21 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Subban – Beaulieu14:02
xG 0.43–0.73 (37%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:48
xG 1.34–0.17 (89%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:00
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Pirri – Shaw4:05
xG 0.14–0.01 (96%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Brickley – Howden2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Petrovic13:45
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson15:04
xG 0.87–0.33 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad10:35
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).