Tue, Dec 29, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 017 | 29 | 00 | 333 |
| STL | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 14:00NSHMattias EkholmSHAssists: Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 12:04STLRobby FabbriAssists: Jori Lehtera, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 1:55STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Jori Lehtera, Colton Parayko · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 16:08NSHShea WeberAssists: Roman Josi, Carter Hutton · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:28NSHColin WilsonAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- OT 4:01STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:22NSHSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 0:42STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:06STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:47NSHRyan Ellis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:05STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:31NSHMike Ribeiro: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Nystrom – Watson8:25
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Salomaki5:30
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson6:14
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Forsberg3:36
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi17:31
xG 0.99–0.32 (76%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm11:27
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones2:43
xG 0.05–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Backes – Brouwer – Paajarvi2:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Brouwer11:00
xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Reaves – Caron8:00
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Lehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri8:59
xG 0.39–0.60 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Bortuzzo8:52
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko2:34
xG 0.03–0.06 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:20
xG 0.50–0.71 (41%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).