Tue, Dec 29, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 414 | 19 | 533 |
| EDM | 013 | 117 | 114 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:22LAKDwight KingAssists: Dustin Brown, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:42LAKMichael MerschAssists: Andy Andreoff · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 5:58LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 9:56EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 14:18LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Dustin Brown, Dwight King · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 1:59EDMMark LetestuAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 11:58LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Trevor Lewis, Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:56EDMMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:11LAKMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:11EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:05LAKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P3 3:07LAKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:08EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – King11:25
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Gaborik – Shore – Pearson10:31
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Nolan – Mersch – Andreoff8:39
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli12:46
xG 0.47–0.99 (32%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Forbort4:15
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb19:25
xG 0.88–0.76 (53%)attempts 27–21goals 2–0
- McBain – Muzzin5:14
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl15:18
xG 1.29–0.71 (65%)attempts 16–24goals 0–1
- Gazdic – Eberle – Lander2:30
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Gazdic2:03
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu8:02
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne16:09
xG 1.60–0.71 (69%)attempts 25–22goals 1–1
- Gryba – Hunt12:00
xG 0.86–0.48 (64%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Sekera – Gryba2:48
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).