Wed, Dec 30, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 18 | 08 | 227 |
| WSH | 014 | 114 | 415 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Jack Eichel, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 14:08WSHJustin WilliamsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 18:53BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 1:24WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 8:32WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 9:56WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 18:47WSHAlex OvechkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:27WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:10BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:30WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:30BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:30WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:55BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:44WSHMarcus Johansson: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:54BUFEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:15WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:26BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Girgensons – Eichel8:11
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Legwand – Foligno – Deslauriers2:15
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Foligno – Larsson3:29
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Kane – Larsson5:08
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Weber9:05
xG 0.74–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen14:05
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe16:18
xG 0.46–0.95 (33%)attempts 17–26goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov3:39
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:57
xG 0.99–0.71 (58%)attempts 22–7goals 1–2
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom9:53
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Laich – Sill – Burakovsky3:38
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner14:54
xG 0.52–0.21 (72%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Chorney – Carrick7:59
xG 0.51–0.48 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Orlov – Schmidt17:04
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).