Wed, Dec 30, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 15 | 313 | 526 |
| TBL | 15 | 110 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53NYRDan BoyleAssists: Keith Yandle, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:35TBLJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 0:56NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: J.T. Miller, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 19:51TBLAnton StralmanPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
- P3 3:16NYRDominic MooreGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 18:39NYRViktor StalbergENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–2
- P3 19:27NYRRick NashENAssists: Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:27NYRTanner Glass: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:19TBLJonathan Marchessault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:18NYRChris Kreider: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:57NYRRick Nash: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:28TBLMatt Carle: Interference2 min
- P2 9:30TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:19NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:37NYRTanner Glass: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Stalberg7:21
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Kreider – Lindberg – Etem7:44
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Fast10:41
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller12:08
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Klein – Staal6:13
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle4:53
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi3:11
xG 0.03–0.08 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Stamkos – Namestnikov9:16
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Filppula – Brown – Paquette9:53
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov10:12
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Marchessault – Drouin6:01
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle7:21
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Coburn – Hedman3:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman14:01
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).