Thu, Dec 31, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 110 | 29 | 329 |
| STL | 010 | 113 | 011 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:42STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 16:12MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Justin Fontaine, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 11:28MINErik HaulaGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 18:23MINThomas VanekENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:42STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:42MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:27MINJustin Fontaine: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:47MINMarco Scandella: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:21STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P2 12:10MINJonas Brodin: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle12:30
xG 1.07–0.47 (69%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine8:31
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Granlund10:34
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Stoll – Porter – Carter10:04
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:24
xG 1.36–0.43 (76%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba9:27
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Paajarvi13:29
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri8:53
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Upshall – Backes – Brouwer9:46
xG 0.16–0.58 (22%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Reaves – Caron7:35
xG 0.24–0.70 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Shattenkirk17:52
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko17:09
xG 0.63–0.98 (39%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo10:07
xG 0.10–0.45 (18%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).