Thu, Dec 31, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 217 | 011 | 14 | 443 |
| COL | 19 | 15 | 113 | 03 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04COLCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 18:32CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:07CHIAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 4:20CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 11:32COLCody McLeodAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 15:05COLErik JohnsonAssists: Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 3:29CHIJonathan ToewsPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:46CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:29COLJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:58COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:37COLJohn Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P2 9:18CHIAndrew Shaw: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:01CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:04COLFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
- P3 12:42COLAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min
- OT 2:43COLJarome Iginla: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Danault – Teravainen10:53
xG 0.60–0.13 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw11:20
xG 0.45–0.29 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Mashinter – Garbutt – Rasmussen4:21
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:21
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson14:54
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Scuderi – van Riemsdyk3:30
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:43
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Mitchell – Duchene – Martinsen12:27
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- McLeod – Skille – Grigorenko4:44
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – MacKinnon11:42
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog11:00
xG 0.42–0.50 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Redmond15:44
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Guenin – Gormley9:55
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson15:27
xG 0.53–0.99 (35%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).