Thu, Dec 31, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 211 | 13 | 424 |
| CGY | 010 | 04 | 110 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:04LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:46LAKMilan LucicGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–0
- P2 3:04LAKAndy AndreoffAssists: Michael Mersch, Jordan Nolan · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 3:36CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Micheal Ferland, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 19:16LAKTanner PearsonENAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:47LAKMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:37LAKJordan Nolan: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:08CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:08LAKMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:01LAKNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:11LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:21CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lewis won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – King11:20
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli11:37
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Gaborik – Shore – Pearson8:38
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Nolan – Mersch – Andreoff7:31
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb17:05
xG 1.00–0.60 (62%)attempts 14–16goals 3–1
- Muzzin – Martinez7:21
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Muzzin11:43
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Granlund – Bennett10:52
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Colborne – Ferland11:41
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig7:12
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan10:28
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell2:34
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano2:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie2:45
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).