Fri, Jan 1, 2016·Gillette Stadium, FoxboroughOutdoor game
Montréal Canadiens 5, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 114 | 211 | 25 | 530 |
| BOS | 03 | 014 | 111 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Dale Weise, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 2:00MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Brian Flynn, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 17:20MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 3:56BOSAdam McQuaidAssists: Ryan Spooner, Jimmy Hayes · Snap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 8:49MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 18:28MTLPaul ByronAssists: P.K. Subban, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:20BOSMax Talbot: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:42MTLDavid Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:42BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:42BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:42MTLDavid Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:27BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:51BOSKevan Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:43MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:41MTLNathan Beaulieu: Holding2 min
- P2 19:30MTLTomas Plekanec: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:24BOSMax Talbot: Holding2 min
- P3 18:18MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:18MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:18BOSJimmy Hayes: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:18BOSJimmy Hayes: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Desharnais – Weise4:58
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:22
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn4:51
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 2–0
- Eller – Galchenyuk – Carr8:42
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Barberio14:05
xG 0.81–0.10 (89%)attempts 19–8goals 3–0
- Subban – Beaulieu12:43
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Markov – Subban2:04
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Ferraro4:02
xG 0.32–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Connolly4:16
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner7:06
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Griffith4:58
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McQuaid – Morrow2:35
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug9:23
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Chara – Seidenberg13:08
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).